Gleno,
Sounds like you Guru could be a contrarian indicator. Does he indicate what time frame (s)he expects the moves? I do expect much lower prices but I would not choose this moment to add to shorts unless you nurse you position from second to second.
I might live to regret this, but I am actually long as of 10 minutes to the close. I sold tons of puts at profit between 50 and 250%. I am all out of June and July puts and even sold some August and September ones because they were so deep in the money.
I don't expect a long bounce but we are coming to expiry that should normally bounce and Thursday is as good a turn date as they come. I just hope I will not be sorry for my decision.
There's a saying that 500 point move in FTSE-100 in three days wlll result to a reasonable (20 to 50% of the previous move) counter trend move and I've benefited from it before. The thing to remember is that it is a counter trend move. We are 100 points short of that. So I front ran it but not as badly as the perma bulls.
I hate the fact that I sold my FTSE puts yesterday (they were May and I was getting afraid of the risk having them killed in a bounce) in the morning when today they were each 1000 pounds more valuable.
I was out of short futures US positions Tuesday. I can't find entry on shorting USD or going long gold. I'm afraid of a explosive countertrend move.
Tomorrow's US economic statistics don't really look big market movers in principle: jobless claims is unlikely to be a big surprice. Natural gas. Leading indicators and Phil Fed survey actually could cause a rally with a weaker than expected reading which makes no sense. Money supply? I think it will be one of those days where any excuse will serve to take this one way or another.
The strength of USD against Euro and GDP kind of gives strength to my feeling that we will get a bounce, break in the trend. Gold was down, then up and closed down. We are also approaching the lenghth of string of down days which should be interrupted by up day or few.
Unless we crash. I would like to see a bounce from tomorrow until mid-day Friday and then down.
I'm planning to start selling calls on bounces on stocks that have no new pending (results) and that are fundamentally overvalued like GOOG. I do think that the downtrend is now set in stone pretty well. Those who don't remember it, better visit December 1999 to 2003 in charts.
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