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ajtj99

05/16/06 6:26 PM

#78293 RE: ajtj99 #78292

Nikkei monthly appears headed to 14000 by this fall. Back-test of the monthly breakout as well as tag of main rising support out of the 2003 and 2005 lows:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?c=$nikk,uu[e,a]maclyiay[d19900106,20061106][pc9!c13!c20!d20,2!c50!c20...

That would be a 20% correction on that index. It's already corrected 8%, similar to what we've seen so far on the RUT and NDX off the 2006 highs.
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Namiar

05/16/06 7:15 PM

#78300 RE: ajtj99 #78292

Thanks for the input AJ,

1) When you establish your anchor points, it appears that you use intraday extremes as opposed to end of day (or week in the case of your example). Is that the case?

2) Looking at the major RSL extending from Oct03 and anchored in Oct05, it appears that that line has been modestly breached over the past few weeks, but recently has been majorly breached. At what point do you reset that RSL. It looks like you will probably await this current selloff to bottom, and then redraw that line.

3) Then it appears that you keep a secondary RSL using more recent troughs in order provide additional targets for future price action. Additionally, you provide an upper boundary line to this secondary RSL in order provide upside target limit projections.

4) From following todays discussion by LG and Newly2B, I see that logarithmic charts are preferred. I would presume that the standard charts tend to distort market activity over time and the log scales remove the distortion. That is, if the NDX moves from 1000 to 1100, it is a 100 pt gain or 10%. But if the NDX moves from 2000 to 2100, it is still a 100 pt gain, but only 5%. Yet the standard non-log chart would portray the gain as equivalent to the earlier 100 pt gain. Where the log scale would put the percentage gains on equal footing.
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Newly2b

05/17/06 12:21 AM

#78317 RE: ajtj99 #78292

AJ

A rising wedge should have the anchor point of the lower line below and to the left of the anchor point for the upper rising line. The opposite is true of a falling wedge.
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Actually that is only true of wedges that occur counter-trend (i.e., Rising Wedge in a downtrend, Falling Wedge in an uptrend). The opposite is true when the wedge occurs in the direction of the trend (Rising Wedge in uptrend, Falling Wedge in downtrend).

http://www.chartpatterns.com/wedges.htm

Newly