We reiterate our Buy rating and $141 TP on Gilead following presentation of multiple TAF trials at the ongoing CROI meeting. In the trials, TAF-based Quad was non-inferior to Stribild in treatment naïve adult patients, while also showing promising efficacy in adolescents and patients with mild to moderate renal impairment. Importantly, trials confirmed TAF’s favorable impact on kidney function (eGFR) and bone mineral density, two key shortcomings of Viread. We believe presented data provides Gilead a clear path to transition the market away from Viread to TAF and extend the sustainability of the HIV franchise to the mid-2020s. We believe the breadth of presented data across a range of patient types should allow TAF to launch with a broad label by its 5 November PDUFA date, supporting our >$5bn peak sales estimate.
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