Based on these numbers, and despite the growing thrice weekly subscription rate (all of which is unlikely to hold upon the introduction of a generic), even if MYL and MNTA were to get simultaneous approval, how would MNTA not be profitable?
What am I missing? Seems to be plenty of meat left on that bone
on sept one, (if only MNTA is approved, not Mylan) what do we believe the sales could be for sept, oct, nov, dec. ($100m for the 4 months? 200m?)
do I remember MNTA saying that they also applied for the 40mg to be approved at the same time as the generic? does TEVA have a separate patent for the 40mg?
FDA can approve Copaxone - it will be decision to launch at risk and it may fizzle quickly if multiple players are approved Baxter - due to restructuring, it is unlikely they will option the next 3 targets Cancer - phase 1 mature data to be released late in the year. Phase 2 in late 2016
Seems that MNTA has only one shot on goal this year - Copaxone launch
Maybe IVig program a distant second.
Do you think the market has discounted Baxter's option for the 3 molecules or we are looking at further price weakness
So it would seem that the copaxone market is pretty stable in terms of market value. Last year there was a 10% price increase (and this year a 9.9%) and the 3x weekly is at a 10% discount and has a 60% share. Implying the 4% yoy 4Q quarterly change is due largely to the 20mg price increase alone.
I'd suggest the large increase in 3x weekly is more due to price (rapid uptake facilitated by payors reducing costs) than convenience and that it is very vulnerable to generic pricing. And wouldn't exclude that share from generic market estimates when the time comes.
1Q15 US Copaxone sales were $732M; the 40mg formulation had a 66% volume share of the combined 20mg and 40mg doses at the end of the quarter, which equates to a dollar share in the low 60s (since Teva sells the 40mg product at a small discount to the 20mg product).
Among all MS drugs in the US market, Copaxone (20mg + 40mg) had a 32% NRx share and a 31% TRx share at the end of 1Q15.
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