ENTA—You left out the value component for the ABT-493/ABT-530 program. If you think this program has no value, then you shouldn't be projecting such a steep decline in V-Pak royalties after 2016. I.e. if the V-Pak royalty stream is going to decline by 15% annually starting in 2017 due to competition (as you projected), some of that competition is likely to come from ABT-493/ABT-530.
I have other issues with your model, but the above is the most clear-cut.
i calculated a 20% decline in 2017 in my quick back of the envelope analysis i posted, but after that i'm not sure how many new entrants there will be to furter erode price. i think a larger factor is going to be the declining size of the US market in 4-5 years or so (the Eu market is projected to continue to expand or at least stay stable for many more years per GILD)
i also agree w DD that abt-493 deserves some value - particularly if it performs well in GT2 and 3 where ABBV has zero presence now
at this point i think good data for MRK and expected launch end of 2016 is probably baked in? at least i hope so bc i was planning on waiting to add mroe enta and i pulled the trigger today if mrk data are so so (unlikely) enta could really shoot up. i am not as concerned about GILD 3 DAA combo since MRK 3DAA 4 week data was awful but if GILD can lower tx duration to 4 weeks (woudl be a big surprise) then i could see more downward pressure on ENTA
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