Replies to post #186706 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

You’re a little high for two reasons: i) the HIV/HCV co-infected group is not mutually exclusive with the other two groups you cited; and ii) not all HIV patients are reimbursed through the Ryan White program.

The aboven pertains to only the US market, of course. As previously noted, I expect ABBV/ENTA to garner a higher patient share in Europe than in the US.

[justrpaul]

Contrary view Viekira market share

1. ESRX = 8-10%

8% assumes the entire GT1 ESRX population would be captured, not just the 25% in the exclusive ABBV deal. So, this is quite a stretch.

2. co-infected HIV/HCV population = 10%

I previously posted message 186231, where Dr. Dr. Mark Sulkowski, the director of the Viral Hepatitis Center at Johns Hopkins assessed the potential of Harvoni and Viekira for coinfection. He clearly gave the nod to Harvoni, not VIekira, though he said Viekira could be used.

3. Medicaid

Medicaid is tricky for a number of reasons:

a.Population data is dated because of Obamacare - Medicaid rolls enlarged in some states through enrolling the previously uninsured; many uninsured also moved on to private commercial insurance.

b. Not only is the population of each state different but prevalence rates vary widely, with high rates in Florida, the states bordering Mexico, the Pacific coast, and the industrial northeast.

c. Different Medicaid programs will cover different levels of HCV progression.