hunterj20 good article sounds like a Catch 22 for oil service companies. This is why the father of the girl I dated when I worked the oil boom in the early 80's lived in the same conservative 3 bedroom house. Despite making millions during the boom, he knew what was eventually coming, the bust, because he had lived thru it before. I went back a few years later they still had the same company, he spent his winters in Arizona and summers in Wy. When the boom went bust he weathered it out because they had zero debt. He took his motorhome and traveled keeping minimum crew for the few wireline jobs they got during lean years. The oil patch is a tough life to live. It is exciting and fun when your young, single and the boom is on but for the married guy with a wife, kids and house car payments it can be rough. Oil booms go bust and the jobs go away fast. Population of Williston ND will drop by 30% within the next year. Imagine owing a home in Willistion that you bought last year. In 12 months is will be worth 50% what you paid for it. In 24 months it might be worth 25% what you paid for it. And you might or might not have a job tomorrow. The oil stores just fine underground for decades waiting to be rediscovered like it did in ND. Ive heard from some ranchers and landowners that NW Oklahoma has more oil and gas than ND they just aren't discovering it yet. Land grab is going one. Homes sat empty in Casper Wy for years and years. If you have money and time go buy some homes in a oil boom town in a couple years. I know a guy that bought a 80k house for $9k 4-5 years after the bust. He owns about 30 or more homes he rents out, he has been retired for 10 yrs he is 50.
FAZ loves financial disasters and margin calls. DWTI until crude bottoms then UWTI. Crude chart is looking like it did in late Dec when it was in the mid 50's retested the low then formed a pennant that turned into a nasty wedge then fell hard into the $40.s. Everyone talks about $30s so lets make it a reality and go retest $33 crude. UWTI will be real cheap.
NG will keep following crudes lead, gas rig count is already very low. NG comes up when oil come up, if us oil rig count drops 40% which is likely then a whole lot less NG will be coming up out of the ground. We won't be importing NG like we could cheap mid east oil. I see a potential for a NG shortage in the coming months, but or now we should focus on oversupply to get the price of UGAZ as low as possible.
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