Replies to post #186593 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

…the 92%/8% split is surely a reasonable first approximation of patients in treatment non-ESRX/ESRX.

I rather doubt it. Several state Medicaid programs and prison systems have yet to decide what they will be offering, and there has been no announcement (to my knowledge) from the VA.

[dewophile]

ENTA

ESRX is opening up tx to all HCV patients, even early stage, so it's fair to assume penetration will be somewhat higher than uptake under more restrictive plans and PBOs. so i think it's fair to increase the 8% assumption to 10% of total Rx

if ABBV gets 90% of gen-1 patients under the ESRX plan (allocating 10% to GILD for pts with contraindications to v-pak - consevative IMO), and 5% (180 nrx vs 3600 nrx) of the non-ESRX, that amounts to .9x.1 + .05x.9 = 13.5% market share. The 5% non-ESRX is bound to rise given the early stage of the launch but 13.5% of a market this size is already real money