augieboo: I have yet to get my TradeStation machine up, so I can’t upload a chart. I suggest you take a long-term comparison look at the TNX, SPX and the GNX Indexes. I think the casino is nearing the end of the bond market mark up. If I am right, this will result in a bottom for long-term interest rates in the near future. And I expect the end of the bond market mark up to coincide with a retrace (dip buying opportunity) for equities.
Recently equities were marked up sharply luring reluctant investors (as well as induce short squeeze buying) back in near the highs to allow the boyz to distribute and then sell short. The “anticipation of an economic recover” excuse will most likely be touted as the reason for the rally, but it will be said to have come to far to fast, getting ahead of itself. This will be parroted to encourage folks to hold into the retrace initially. However, the boyz will need you and I to sell, so they will throw in a few down moves that will get small investors doubting the move down is just a retrace. This process will provide the inventory “them that hold the price stamps” need to accumulate.
Once the boyz' inventory has been restocked, you can bet prices are going higher, as the boyz always get more than what they paid for their inventory on balance. As money is pulled out of bonds to buy equities, longer-term rates will rise.
Those looking for the October 2002 Index lows to be taking out, my have to wait a spell…gg
As the pieces of the puzzle come together, look for mortgage rates, equities and commodities to eventually begin to move up in unison.
Just a a WAG...Thinking Like A Criminal!
Regards,
LG
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