Replies to post #185826 on Biotech Values

[Rocky3]

From Wells today:

**Harvoni/Sovaldi IMS data week-ended 1/23/15 became available today and showed continued growth in new Harvoni
and Sovaldi prescriptions.
**Harvoni NRx are up to 3,627, +2% vs. 3,560 last week - a lower week-over-week increase compared to last week, but
still encouraging in light of competitor ABBV's launch. We expect continued volatility for prescriptions in Jan/Feb with the
introduction of the competitor and substantial increases in patient access.
**Sovaldi NRx increased to 823 from 745, +11% and continuing to suggest U.S. new scrips demand finding an
equilibrium near the 800 scrips/week range, reflecting base demand from GT-2/3s.
**With flat Sovaldi new patient starts the remainder of the year and an average of 0.5-0.8% week-over-week declines in
Harvoni new patient starts for the rest of the year, U.S. sales for the overall HCV franchise would track at $15.84B for the
year, under (perhaps optimistic) 18-20% gross/net assumptions; with 30% gross/net assumptions, U.S. sales track to
$14.33B, which would translate to global 2015 HCV sales of $17B.
**BOTTOM LINE: Solid momentum at the start of the year for Harvoni starts, particularly encouraging given the launch of
a competitor and helping to provide reassurance that the agent's preferable profile plus improvements in access should
drive continued strength in volumes. Scrips projector indicates that key for whether GILD can meet or even significantly
beat 2015 expectations will be whether prescriptions/new patient starts can maintain the same momentum throughout the
course of the year once the initial bolus of more plugged-in patients awaiting access has pulled through.