Here are the most realistic thoughts from a Russian oil company who has the least interest in seeing low oil prices, on both price and duration of volatility in pricing:
Russia’s Lukoil says oil price could fall to $25 per barrel
AFP, Moscow Friday, 16 January 2015
Russian oil company Lukoil on Friday predicted that oil prices, which have more than halved since June last year, could plunge as low as $25 per barrel.
The oil price “could fall to $25,” said Vagit Alekperov, the chief executive of the private oil producer, quoted by RIA Novosti.
Alekperov said such a low price would not last long but was a possibility, as Saudi Arabia, the kingpin of the OPEC cartel has insisted that it will not cut crude production.
Asked how long the volatility on the oil market could go on for, Alekperov said: “For the next year for sure... Yesterday, you saw, they fluctuated 10 percent. That has never happened before.”
Oil prices this week fell to near their lowest in six years, to around $46 per barrel, a level that has led to job losses in the oil industry and the scrapping of some less profitable projects.
Russia, which gets half of its revenues from oil and gas, has seen the ruble plunge against the euro and dollar, exacerbated by Western sanctions imposed over its actions in Ukraine.
The Russian authorities have said that if oil prices remain at this level, GDP could fall up to 5 percent this year with a significant budget deficit.
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