Mr. Market is cautious, both about betting on big upsides, and about divesting to avoid big downsides.
I'm biased toward imagination rather than calculation - so I take the kinds of risks associated with entrepreneurs who bet on new ideas. Steve Jobs is one of my favorite examples. There was no way to apply a rational expectation to the future sales of iPods. But Steve's imagination told him the number would be surprisingly big and would fully justify the huge risk he was taking.
Carnegie applied the same kind of imagination to the Bessemer process, foreseeing in a way defying calculation the potential for new rails and building components.
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