Replies to post #2209 on Velocityshares 3X Long Natural Gas ETN (UGAZ)

[Rock_nj]

Certainly possible, but it could take some time. There are just so many variables that affect nat gas prices. Many had written off DGAZ for dead, and it made a strong comeback as nat gas futures fell.

Things that could get UGAZ back to $10 include an extended winter that lasts into early spring. A drop in nat gas production because oil wells are abandoned or new ones aren't drilled. A hot summer (it's been a while since we've had a hot summer that cut into the storage refill season). Higher demand late in 2015 due to exports, coupled with whatever else is going on then as far as weather and production.

No doubt, the long nat gas trade has been a bust this fall / winter, unless one traded it in November. It should be noted that due to rollover rot and decay, it is harder over time for UGAZ to get back to $10.

[sumotrader]

Two weeks ago I would have said absolutely, probably higher but now I highly doubt it. With the beta decay eating away at potential returns every day it would take a perfect storm of really cold temps, lower than expected injections and huge withdrawals to get this ship turned around.

I ignored my own advice and started loading when the daily RSI approached 30 so now I am the uncomfortable holders of 5000+ shares in the 5.50 range. If UGAZ dips into the 2's I will have to eat huge losses but that's the game we play.

I'd be very happy to see 6's again at this point as nat gas could have a couple more legs down before bottom.

Good luck