Just reviewed W. Buffett's overall stock position. he has been steadily reverting back to cash these last 6 months. His favorite market valuation ratio is Total market Cap to GDP. It is currently 128.5% In recent history the lowest was 35% in 1982 and highest was the tech bubble at 148.
To me this indicates, contrary to the streets expectation, that we will underperform this year.
I always follow Buffett's views and stock position. He is a numbers guy that is very good at determining valuation.
I also rechecked the markets actions against a strong dollar and it is mixed. no real consensus so perhaps I am wrong in this regard. I do know that when it jumps quickly there usually are repercussions. I am assuming the strong resistance at 90 these last 10 years will not hold this time around. I expect it to hit 100 within 2 months time.
A fickle group of guru financial icons seem to always interpret the market after the fact. That means when the OIL drop caused the SPX to drop to 1850 these same people found reasons why we are in trouble. Now they are on the other side of the argument. Fascinating to watch.
OIL's recent lows was 54.5. it is now at 55.3. In a tight range since the big drop. If it breaks further down, below 54.5 it should easily go to 50. I will bet against the market if this happens.
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