Replies to post #46 on PJSC Gazprom Adr. (OGZPY)

[mick]

thank you for update/ 'Gazprom Oao (OGZPY)'

[mick]

important move on north korea/\
sony sne will release interview picture christmas day/\ freedom of expression/\

[mick]

[maverick one]

History shows: 9 out of 10 deals Gazprom inks do not go through ever.

The West Siberian $400 Bill deal will NEVER HAPPEN.

The NEW East Siberian deal (smaller) PROBABLY WILL BE BUILT.

The West Siberian has been put off til 16' it's not a contract but an inked understanding nothing more.

West Siberian is a pipe dream- it was more for propaganda to say to the EU and the USA hey look at our alignment...to make it look they have a solid relationship.

Which it's not even close to being one.

[mick]

Gazprom's Asset Swap With OMV And Its Future In Europe
Jan. 11, 2016 12:36 PM ET| About: Gazprom OAO ADR (OGZPY), Includes: OMVJF
Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. (More...)
Summary
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3802616-gazproms-asset-swap-with-omv-and-its-future-in-europe?auth_param=1ahnos:1b97q0s:3be205d54fafbe3a6a3ff1ebd855bfac&uprof=46&dr=1
Strategic partnership with OMV will help Gazprom to gain control of the European market.

Low oil and gas prices will likely hit Gazprom investments across various regions.

US gas exports threaten Gazprom's Europe business.


Gazprom and OMV partnership

GazpromGazprom (OTCPK:OGZPY) is the leading oil and gas giant in Russia and Europe's main supplier of gas. Most of the pipelines go through eastern Europe and the eastern sea. The Russian giant always had close ties to the Austrian energy firm OMV (OTC:OMVJF).

Recently both firms have entered a strategic partnership and are discussing an asset swap. OMV will participate in the enlargement of the eastern sea pipeline (Nordstream) that will carry additional 55 bn. cubic meters of gas to Germany. Furthermore OMV (OTC:OMVJF) will also be entitled to purchase a part of the large "Urengoy" gas field in western Siberia.

OMV will be one among the few foreign gas firms to gain access to a Russian gas field. In exchange Gazprom (OTCPK:OGZPY) will receive some of OMVs refinery assets in Schwechat (near Vienna) and Bavaria (Germany). Gazprom is obviously investing now in the downstream business across Western Europe.

According to people familiar with the matter both are also in talks to change ownership of a refinery in Romania. Despite the political challenges between the EU and the Russian Federation, OMV has managed to even improve its relationship to Gazprom and will therefore work closely together with the eastern energy giant. The asset swap is worth billions of dollars. (Gazprom and OMV, 29.12.2015)

Weak Ruble and low oil prices

The Russian Federation needs an oil price of roughly $90 to have a balanced budget. According to the recent slump in oil prices the Russian Ministry of Finance has cut spending and assumed oil prices at $50 for 2016. With the current level of roughly $35 the Russian economy will take a further hit in 2016. The economy stagnated in 2015 already and GDP decreases by 3.7%. A number of economist predict a 2% drop in GDP for 2016 with oil prices at $50.

If lower, the picture could get more bleak. Apart from that a weak Ruble is making the situation more challenging. Also because inflation is soaring and domestic purchasing power is decreasing quickly.

Not to mention the currency reserves which are also depleting at a fast pace. The Russian central bank constantly intervenes on the currency market to stabilize the Russian Ruble. However, every drop in oil prices immediately hits the Ruble. At the moment 1$ equals 75 Russian Ruble and 1 EUR equals 81 Ruble. At the moment the Russian currency reserves amount roughly $400bn. (Russian economy and ruble, 7.1.2016)

The debt to GDP ratio is below 20%, which means there is enough space even if the Russian bonds are near junk status. Below you can see a chart that basically shows how much the Russian currency depends on the current oil price.
US LNG exports to Europe

Recently the US has lifted its ban on exporting oil and gas which was introduced in the 1970. For years, US gas companies looking to export liquefied natural gas dreamed of a booming Asia. Now, with demand there falling and the first shipment weeks away, Europe has emerged as an unlikely savior. For both, eastern and western Europe, reducing dependence on Russian gas is on top of the agenda.

Since domestic European gas production is down and many countries from Estonia, Poland, Netherlands, Croatia to Bulgaria are building LNG terminals to reduce headaches with Russia. First shipments are only weeks away and Europe plans to partially substitute Russian gas by US gas. Although there are not enough terminals for LNG in Europe yet, this poses a significant risk to the Russian gas suppliers. In the long term Europe's demand for gas will only rise, but Russia as a major supplier will have a competitor, the US. This will likely further push prices down. (US LNG for Europe, 6.1.2016)

Below you can see the recent development of Europe's gas output.

Summary

Europe's dependence on gas imports from Russia and the US will rise. The domestic gas output in Europe is falling. Gazprom will find itself in a challenging situation. However, the so to speak monopoly will likely continue to be the main source of income for the Russian state. The times of high oil prices seems to be over, at least for the next couple of years, also because of massive oversupply and weak demand from Asia and especially China. Saudi Arabia is even considering selling shares in its oil jewel, Aramco. The market sentiment for commodities is bad and most investors are bearish on energy stocks.

[mick]

RUSSIAN OIL/ DAILY/





DAILY/ [-chart]ih.advfn.com/p.php?pid=staticchart&s=OGZPY&p=0&t=17&showctype=1&width=336&height=190&vol=1&afterhours=130[/chart]

[-chart]chart.finance.yahoo.com/t?s=OGZPY&lang=en-US®ion=US&width=300&height=180[/chart]

[-chart]stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=OGZPY&p=D&b=2&g=0&i=p72104498736&r=1395542761133[/chart]

[mick]

i didn't read in this below $30/ reading some, north korea is looking fer u.s. war. your message still warrants reasoning.


$400,000,000,000 deal with China!

http://www.bullfax.com/?q=node-russian-crisis-kills-big-german-gas-deal


Russian crisis kills big German gas deal
Fri, 12/19/2014 - 05:43 EDT - CNN - Money

BASF drops planned asset swap with Russia's Gazprom as Western sanctions bite.

RELATED
China and Russia’s $400-billion gas mega-deal hardly means game over for Canadian LNG
With its US$400-billion deal this week to supply natural gas to China, Russia has leapfrogged Canada and other would-be LNG exporters seeking to do business with the Asian nation. But Beijing has made it clear it will not be a pawn in Moscow’s great global gas game.

Gazprom Embraces Europe A Little More Closely
By Emerging Money: By Mitchell Hall Russia's state-owned natural gas giant Gazprom (OGXPY.PK) will take over natural gas trading and storage businesses it jointly owns with the world's largest chemical company, Germany's BASF (BASFY.PK), as part of an asset swap meant to avoid further winter supply disruptions to Europe that have occurred in recent years.

Former BP CEO Warns "Sanctions Will Bite West" As US Gives Majors 14 Days To Wind Down Russian Activities
For the past six months, even as Obama and the EU were laying harsher sanctions on the Kremlin, one group of companies had managed to sneak by unscathed and largely avoided being impacted by Russia's isolation by the West: the world's biggest E&P companies, as explained in detail over a month ago in "Exxon Drilling Russian Arctic Shows Sanction Lack Bite."

Russia Can Survive An Oil Price War
Submitted by Colin Chilcoat via OilPrice.com,

Russia, Ukraine trade blame as fighting tests truce
Kiev (AFP) - Tensions over Ukraine festered on Saturday after Kiev accused the Kremlin of seeking to "eliminate" the pro-Western former Soviet nation while Moscow charged Washington with orchestrating the entire crisis.

Russian firms turn to Asia for finance as Western funds demur
China and Russia sign 30-year natural gas deal worth US$400-billion
SHANGHAI, China — China signed a long-awaited, 30-year deal Wednesday to buy Russian natural gas worth US$400 billion in a financial and diplomatic boost to diplomatically isolated President Vladimir Putin. Negotiations on the price for the gas had continued into the final hours of a two-day visit by Putin to China, during which the two sides had said they hoped to sign a deal.

Russia's "Holy Grail" Gas Deal With China Now "Only One Digit Away"
We have previously profiled the "holy grail" gas deal between Russia and China on several occasions, and noted last week how it is expected to be signed this week - pending some final price negotiations.

Ukraine and Russia tackle gas crisis as tensions spike
Kiev (AFP) - Ukraine and Russia were set on Wednesday to resume crunch EU-mediated gas talks aimed at ending a months-long supply cut that threatens to hit swathes of Europe this winter.

Why Putin Is Smiling At The Bond Market's Blockade Of Russia
One of the recurring themes the western media regurgitates at every opportunity is that while the western "diplomatic" sanctions against Russia are clearly a joke, one thing that will severely cripple the economy is the capital market embargo that has struck Russian companies, which are facing $115 billion of debt due over the next 12 months.

- See more at: http://www.bullfax.com/?q=node-russian-crisis-kills-big-german-gas-deal#sthash.I6iLN6GN.dpuf

[mick]

interesting russian stuff/ Moscow is seeking buyers for 19.5% of state oil giant
Rosneft (OTC:RNFTF)
and expects to raise at least 700B rubles ($11B) from the sale,
setting a privatization record for the country.

[mick]

Gazprom, OMV agree on outline for swap of Norway, Siberia assets
Dec. 14, 2016 10:20 AM ET|By: Carl Surran, SA News Editor
Gazprom (OTCPK:OGZPY) and Austria's OMV (OTC:OMVJF) reach an outline deal to swap a 38.5% stake in OMV's Norwegian unit for a 25% in a section of Gazprom's Urengoy gas field.

The companies say they are optimistic about obtaining approval from Norwegian authorities for the deal, after Gazprom had said previously that Norway might block it from acquiring a stake larger than 25% in OMV's Norwegian holding.

The effective date of the deal will be Jan. 1, pending regulatory approval, with the final deal expected to be sealed in the middle of next year.

[eFinanceMarkets]

Reuters: Gazprom raises £850M via Eurobond
Russia's Gazprom (OTCPK:OGZPY) has raised £850M ($1.05B) through a Eurobond, setting a yield of 4.25% for its seven-year sterling benchmark bond, Reuters reports.
A deal in sterling would cement the Russian company's return to its main international funding markets, after earlier this month selling its first bond denominated in U.S. dollars since fall 2014, a $750M 10-year issue.
Gazprom has an external borrowing plan for 2017 of 288.26B rubles ($5.1B).

[mick]

http://www.stockscores.com/charts/charts/?ticker=OGZPY

[mick]

http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/OGZPY