Replies to post #117029 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[Zeev Hed]

It is possible that the I-net sector will lead the way, and if you like playing with fire, then sure, the like of EXPE (only if it breaches $69 or so) could be trophies. My own selection would still be with safe shorts like GM (at $35.5 to $36.5 SL $37.75, suggested it two weeks or so ago), MMM ($127.5 to $128.5 SL at $131 or a little higher), both suggested in the last two weeks or so. IBM in the $82 to $84 area with a stop at $85.5. I think MO is over extended here and running into congestion in the $42 to $44 area (Stop at $44.15), target probably around $35. EK here in the $30.75 to $32 with a stop at $32.5 (closing basis). These are much safer than the like of EXPE, ROOM, KLAC, NVLS and CYMI, which may all drop farther, but if the market reverse, they could kill you.

Mind you, I am not a Grizzly here, and a better tactic would be, IMTO, to find stocks that are reaching bottoms of their range and make the assumption that they will lead the next ramp. I believe COCO and BSTE might be in that class. LSCP near $6 might also qualify, and if you are patient, maybe IDPH could be gotten in the $32/3 and AMGN in the $57/9 area. All these, are of course, long plays.

Zeev

[DlphcOracl]

Babylon: My two best candidates for shorts are:

.....the biotech index (BTK) and the German xetra dax index.

The biotech index is up an astonishing 65% since early March and nearly all of these companies are not profitable. The sector rocketed following Genentech's promising trial of an anti-colon cancer drug, a gross overreaction. Genentech will not be able to market that drug for several years and the other companies have little in their immediate pipeline to justify current valuations. It's the old "promise and hype" cycle that is part of the biotech sector.

The xetra dax is up nearly 45% since early March and the German economy is moribund, almost certain to slip into its second recession in two years, with a very high unemployment rate and recalcitrant labor unions that will not permit German industries to undertake the cost-cutting measures their industries desperately need to make them globally competitive. Germany is where Sweden was ten years ago --- addicted to a socialist "cradle-to-grave" welfare system for their workers that they cannot afford.

The biotech index can be shorted by using the ETF for it (IBB). Similarly, the xetra dax can be shorted using its ETF (EWG). They both look mighty juicy to me!!