Why a nuclear Iran might greatly increase the prospect for peace in the Mideast.
The Arab World and the Challenge of Iran's Nuclear Empowerment
By Nader Habibi
Al-Jazeerah, April 29, 2006
Iran’s nuclear program which passed a major threshold in early April, with the successful enrichment of uranium up to 3.5% has posed a strategic challenge not only to the United States and Western Europe but also to Iran’s neighbors, particularly the Arab world. The potential military application of Iran’s nuclear program has worried some Arab governments. A few GCC leaders, such as the high ranking officials of United Arab Emirates have expressed deep concerns about Iran’s nuclear ambitions. At the same time, Syria, which maintains close ties with Iran, has expressed support for Iran’s nuclear program.
While at present the Arab countries are not under any pressure to take a stand on the Iran nuclear crisis, the situation might change within the next few months. If the United States convinces other major powers to impose an economic sanction on Iran, it will most likely ask the Arab countries to participate in this sanction. If it fails to obtain the United Nations’ support for a comprehensive economic sanction, the United States might choose a military option for which it will need to use its military bases in Bahrain, Qatar and United Arab Emirates. There is no doubt that a military strike against Iran will have very serious consequences for the entire Middle East region.
Hence the Arab countries must decide on whether to support or oppose a potential U.S. military operation against Iran. To address this question the Arab governments must first decide on whether the success of Iran’s nuclear program (to which I will refer from here on as Iran’s nuclear empowerment) will be in the interest of the Arab world or not. In the remaining sections of this article I will focus on this question and shed light on some of the many ways that Iran’s nuclear program could affect the Arab world.
*Balance of Power between Iran and the Arab Countries
Even if Iran stops short of developing nuclear weapons, its access to peaceful nuclear technology will enhance its prestige and military status in the region. Countries that have access to uranium enrichment technology can increase the enrichment of their uranium stockpile to weapon level over time and for this reason they are sometimes referred to as “nuclear ready states”. Iran will hence achieve a partial military superiority over its Arab neighbors as a result of its nuclear program. This imbalance might worry the GCC countries, particularly the Saudi government, which views itself as the leader and guardian of the smaller GCC countries. It will also worry the United Arab Emirates which is currently locked in a territorial dispute with Iran over three small Islands that are currently under Iranian control.
It must be noted however, that under current geopolitical arrangements in the region, a nuclear Iran will not necessarily pose a direct military threat to GCC countries because they are under the security umbrella of the United States. The close strategic relation between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia will also act as a deterrent against any military aggression by Iran against GCC countries. In other words Iran simply can not use its nuclear assets for any kind of military offense against its Arab neighbors because it will face military retaliation at the hands of these nation's allies. What Iran will gain from its nuclear program is a deterrence which will enhance its bargaining position in current and future disputes with the Arab world. The availability of this deterrence could embolden Iran in seeking a greater alliance with Syria and a Shiite dominated Iraqi government. Such an alliance might be seen as an undesirable development by other Arab countries.
*Balance of Power between Israel and Muslim Countries of Middle East
Currently Israel is the only nuclear power in Middle East and it intends to maintain this nuclear monopoly by stopping Iran and any other Middle Eastern country from acquiring nuclear technology. The U.S. hostility toward Iran’s nuclear policy is also to some extend motivated by its concern for Israel’s national interests. If Iran can protect and develop its nuclear program and achieve a “nuclear ready” status, this imbalance of power between Israel and its neighbors will be reduced. From this point of view Iran’s nuclear empowerment will be a positive development for the Arab world.
The current imbalance of power between Arabs and Israel has prevented the Arab countries from offering substantive assistance to the Palestinian cause. Israel’s absolute superiority over the Palestinians has prolonged the occupation of West Bank and Gaza. Once the Palestinians have the backing of a nuclear ready nation they will be able to offer a more effective resistance to the occupation and it might take a shorter period of time for them to convince the Israelis to end the occupation.
*Potential for Nuclear Empowerment of Arab Countries
If the United States can successfully stop Iran’s nuclear development it will be in a better position to prevent any Arab country from developing an independent nuclear program. (There have been some news reports recently that the United States is tolerating a covert nuclear program by Turkey as a reward for Turkey’s cooperation with U.S. policies in the region but it is unlikely that the U.S. will offer a similar opportunity to any Arab country.) On the other hand if Iran achieves nuclear empowerment, the U.S. will have less justification for stopping moderate Arab governments, such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt, from developing their own nuclear programs. Furthermore, the larger Arab governments will have a stronger incentive to develop their nuclear programs once Iran becomes a nuclear ready state. Nuclear empowerment of Arab countries will not only eliminate the Iran-Arab imbalance of power, but it will also reduce Israel’s nuclear edge over the Arab world.
*Peace and stability of Middle East
In the short-run it might be destabilizing but in the long run the nuclear empowerment of Iran could contribute to the peace and stability of Middle East. This contribution will be both direct and indirect. Once Iran is nuclear ready the risk of direct confrontation between Iran and the United States or any proxies of the United States will diminish. Obviously Iran will be no match for U.S. military might and will not initiate any attacks against it. Iran’s nuclear ready status will also deter the United States from a full-scale military attack against Iran. Hence the threat of a U.S.-Iran military confrontation will diminish.
While this is a direct result of Iran’s nuclear empowerment, its indirect effect could be even more significant for long-term stability of the region. As mentioned earlier, larger Arab countries are likely to react to Iran’s nuclear advancement by launching their own nuclear programs. If these programs are successful and one or two Arab countries achieve nuclear ready status, the imbalance of power between Arab world and major military powers will diminish. As a result the risk of military intervention and interference by external military powers in Arab countries will also diminish because such attacks will be too costly.
In 2003 most Arab countries opposed the U.S. military invasion of Iraq but their objections were ignored. It is fair to argue that if one or two Arab countries had achieved nuclear ready status the U.S. might have been more hesitant to occupy Iraq. The same logic will apply to future occasions when the United States or any other major power might be tempted to occupy a Middle Eastern country. With the rising value of oil in the coming years the competition among major powers for access to Middle East oil resources is only going to intensify and further destabilize the region. Such a faith can only be avoided if the major countries of the region have an effective deterrence against external intervention.
As explained earlier, the nuclear empowerment of Iran and subsequently the Arab World, will increase the prospects for an end to the occupation of Palestinian territories, which will practically end the Arab-Israeli conflict. Furthermore, as long as Israel is the only nuclear-ready state in the region it will never voluntarily dismantle its alleged nuclear weapons. Once a few other Middle Eastern countries achieve a similar status then Israel might be better prepared to help free the entire Middle East region from nuclear weapons.
Final Words
Nuclear empowerment of Iran will create an imbalance of power and technological achievement between the Arab world and that country. The Arab world can respond to this imbalance in two ways. It can support the external powers that are trying to suppress Iran's nuclear program. Alternatively, the larger Arab countries can meet this challenge by launching their own nuclear programs. Both options will reduce the imbalance of power between Iran and Arab Countries. The second alternative will also reduce the imbalance of power between Arab World and Israel. It will also reduce the imbalance of power between Arab world and Major world powers.
(Author is an economist with the Middle East division of Global Insight consulting firm.)
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