I agree. I think it actually went slightly below $3.60 this fall at one point, to $3.58. In any case, if that support fails, then it could quickly drop to another level and could get even uglier for UGAZ. December is now looking on the warm side for the first 3 weeks. Whether or not that is now priced in remains to be seen. I suspect it is not fully priced in yet. The one thing UGAZ longs have going for them is that winter hasn't even started yet.
I would like to note to those gloating over the drop in nat gas / UGAZ, they both popped significantly twice this fall, providing ample opportunities to make profitable trades, which many traders did. Winter starts in a little over two weeks. Weak El Nino winters are known to take some time to get started. The November cold outbreak was a fluke caused by a typhoon recurving into the Gulf of Alaska. UGAZ could have easily been trading in this range all this time, had it not been for that outbreak.
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