In the case of an intermediate-term trend reversal, here are several things I would require:
1. Huge spike or buildup in distribution volume relative to accumulation volume
2. Clear evidence of technical breakdown, e.g. strong bearish divergence, followed by technical sell signals, particularly a 15-5-5 stochastic crossover from extreme overbought territory, particularly on the weekly chart.
3. Evidence of extreme bullish sentiment; the indicator I like is the 10 sma and 21 sma of the put call (CPC), both of which should dip below 0.75.
4. All of the above should preferably occur at or near the top rail of the regression channel that extends back 54 weeks and defines the current intermediate-term trend.
5. It would be nice to see an exhaustion gap with evidence of a blow-off and downside gap, or a topping pattern, e.g. a double-top or triple-top.
6. A high volume tall black candle just past a high point.
7. Noticeable increase in frequency of background conversations in supermarket lines about how much money some Joe Sixpack made on a some tech stock he found out about from a hot tip from his brother-in-law's pet aardvark, and how his cousin Billy Bob just bought an island nation from easy money he made in the markets.
If I saw even the first 3 in this list, I would short the shinola out of everything that wasn't bolted down and didn't bite back!
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