Replies to post #1766 on North West Oil Group, Inc. (NWOL)

[Happycoins]

I had AURC but NDOL has so much going for it at the moment.
Yesterday up .195 so a small retraction on profit takers could be expected today.Temped to cash out because made a lot but increased my position on weakness today. Tomorrow should be good!

[robsaia]

I agree. I cannot see the pps worth anything less than a dollar, actually $1.25-$1.50 based on a potential buyout of $2.77+/-. Do the math. Just use Proven and probable reserves, not including transport business or current revs.
Proven alone brings us around $1.40+ even with export tax over $25 bbl. Lets use some very conservative numbers:

Assumptions:
Actual Proven reserves 13.5m bbl (90% of 15m)
Actual Probable reserves 13.2m bbl (40% of 33m)
Spot price $59 (accounts for ex tax)
Extraction cost $20 bbl (worldwide avg = $15bbl)
Entrepuenial Profit/Overhead $15 bbl
O/S (f/d) 230 million shares

VALUATION (USD)
Value of Proven Reserves $1.40 share (rounded)
Value of Probable Reserves $1.37
TOTAL (nic transport bus) $2.77 SHARE

I realize that this is a simplistic valuation and that the actual valuation will be estimated by other methods such as discounted cash flow, etc. I have run a dcf on this and still get over $2.00/bbl. I have looked at actual sales of Russian companies (last year) and still get over $2.00/share.