Replies to post #76325 on Sino Agro Food Inc (fka SIAF)

[Andrew26]

At this point its unclear why anyone would pay higher multiple than the company is worth. And second thing - listing in HK obviously takes solid time. How is it in Sweden? Also they still havent made it to even Swedish OTC market, why spinoff should be easier?

Anyway I look at it, it totally dependent on the ability to list in Sweden as SIAF first.

[chingcharles]

I don't think they are looking to list SJAP in Sweden. The Sweden listing talk seems to concern SIAF'S.

[Helium-3]

Any ideas on how much SJAP might worth and where it will be listed? They initially talked about HK, now it seems that they prefer Sweden.

If it was up to me I would get it listed on the HK exchange, that's a no-brainer. I'm not putting down Sweden but an HK listing would have broader appeal similar to the NY and London markets.

[Traderfan]

All I know is that HK is a headache in terms of waiting time. I think 1-1.5 years at least from the date you apply. IKHG is still not listed and they applied long long ago. A real nightmare.

[NYKnuckleballer]

The number always bandied about was $800M*.

Note: That's full valuation and SIAF only "officially" owns 45% of SJAP.

*Assumptions of $200M TTM, 25% margin, and a 16 p/e.

But a 16 p/e was pie in the sky (maybe still is) because the parent company isn't even trading at a 1 p/e. However, with ECAB on the case, it's becoming more and more realistic.

At the Charlotte meeting, I explicitly asked what they would do if they were asking for a multiple of 16 but the market was only willing to pay, say, 5.

Hemming and hawing ensued (cross that bridge when we get to it) but I think the answer was they wouldn't spin-off if they couldn't get proper market value.