augie, "not all that weird" covers a lot of ground since it considers all data, all periods yet doesn't say anything about market direction. I think the relevant question is: At these P/E levels has history shown the market more likely to go up or down?
just kidding. assuming a normal distribution is a big, well, assumption, but since it makes life easier why not. we may be inside the StandDev BUT another way of stating 2/3 of the data points are inside is that we spend 2/3 of our time inside --
and we've been above for a long long time now.
someone clever could actually measure how long we've stayed above before and see how it compares to how long we've stayed above this time.
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