Replies to post #75688 on Sino Agro Food Inc (fka SIAF)

[RealDutch]

Quite frankly there is not stable ground enough to determine an intrinsic value sofar as far as i can deem

That's subjective. Analysts have to start with an objective measurement that reflects profitability and growth.

Do you know how they came up with a P/E of 9? Because the company was trading at a P/E of 9 a number of years ago. Is that REALLY how you want to value this company? We didn't even have the abattoir or the mega farm back then. It makes no sense.

You know how I would do this? I would start with $45 because that reflects the basics (profits+growth). There is no debate about growth here because even the analysts believe that the company will grow 30% for the next 5 years. We have already solved the toughest problem - determining the growth rate.
Now, I look at management, IP, execution, competitiveness, flexibility, adaptability etc. and I give the company a 30% BONUS. Which means V = $58.5.
Now I look at the risks associated with being Chinese, trading on OTC, and I apply a discount of 50%. Which gives me a price target of $29.25. It's as good as any other method and probably much better than what the rest is doing.