Replies to post #74367 on Innovation Pharmaceuticals Inc (IPIX)

[frrol]

No need to tell me anything; there is no psychological battle going on in a stock's share price, no "psy op" of some hedge fund (or whatever). This is something you want to believe, to make sense of the "pattern" you perceive, or to explain why it's not moving how you thought it should. No one can convince you this battle doesn't exist. So God bless.

But what is happening is that people are buying and selling CTIX shares for there own reasons, at there own price targets, and at their own timing and liquidity or tax planning needs. And it is not coordinated, makes the stock go up and down, completely randomly.

[I Need Help]

I agree with your post:

I don't believe in any conspiracy, but if you are denying that there is a psychological battle going on between the buying and selling here, I'm not sure what to tell you.

Some observations: 1) Very good volume today, 2) Surprised there was not more price movement considering, 3) Much more activity on the buy (Ask) side, 4) MM's seemed able to walk the price down whenever it suited them, 5) Most larger size trades were on the buy side.

Over the years, I have come to believe that while the markets are not (completely) rigged, they are heavily influenced by the professional, large players -- including the market makers. Matter of point, when it comes to many small caps, investors can often benefit by thinking "what would be the MM's next move", not where the price should go on the next tick.

Simple truth, MM's make money by churning, their profit is in the spread and they benefit from volume. I find little evidence that MM's generally care whether the price goes up or down. I think they are happiest when the price is range bound, but volatile enough to justify larger spreads, with large spreads or quick moves with reversals. Even while a stock PPS is daily/hourly rising, there are usually plenty of micro reversals.

When a stock runs wild (up or down) MM's are most vulnerable. When running long, MM's often will short to gain shares for liquidity. They must cover these shorts at some point. When running short, MM's often have to buy shares with a deflationary outlook. But, not to feel sorry for the MM. Generally, they do not have large pools of stock, so their risk is minimized. But, it is to their advantage to reverse momentum to get shares at prices to mitigate situations in which they are providing liquidity at a loss.

From a traders view, I see lots of emotional influence exerted. For instance, some of the largest blocks of buys today occurred just as CTIX was moving into higher territory. This is common, as some momentum buyers are fearful that the train is leaving the station, and they want to be onboard. Many of these buys were probably limit orders. Sometimes, stocks on a roll start a buying frenzy. As investors see the price go up, some buy, ..., it goes higher, more buy. Eventually, the stock hits screeners, and gets media attention, and run she goes.

When a stock reverses down on a run (long), it puts an emotional brake on some buyers, this is especially true when there is a significant drop, an unexpected drop, or repeated drops. The reverse is true for stocks running short. A factor of human nature (behavior), common sense.

What I am expecting: 1) If volume continues strong, current environment, price will continue to rise (slowly or quickly). I am constantly scrutinizing volume. High volume with upward momentum, good for longs. High volume with downwards momentum, good for shorts. 2) I agree with many that the current momentum is connected to anticipated unblinding of B news, so there is the possibility for buying the anticipated news and selling the fact. 3) If the stock overheats (parabolic move); then, there will likely follow a retrenchment. 4) If there is a significant gain, even just the latest move from $2 to $3, there eventually will be a period of consolidation. 5) There is the possibility for back to back catalysts, which could keep momentum strong. Back to back good news, insider buying, analyst coverage, positive media, etc. 6) For the long term, it is about fundamentals. So, as long as CTIX keeps progressing its technologies, PPS will reflect the progress. 7) There is always the possibility for a stumble, set back, or negative media.

And the beat goes on: