Replies to post #7438 on MDA - Market Direction Analysis (MDA)

[augieboo]

Ergo, I have no idea if I can explain it, but I'll tell you what I see.

Well, the stock was in an up trend, (blue lines), which was pinching a bit, (violet lines), into a sort of wedge-within-a-channel thingie, (only it wasn't really a channel yet, since there had only been one touch of the upper, would-be, trend line...





There was a SLIGHT positive divergence on the Monthly Stochastic, but I don't think I would have caught it even if I looked at the stock every day. Besides, it wasn't confirmed by any other indicator(s), so I probably would have ignored it even if I had seen it.





The weekly chart gives not a clue so far as I can see except for the afore-mentioned up trend. Well, that's not exactly true. The bollinger bands were narrowing a bit, but not enough to clue me into something like what happened...





Daily indicators really didn't say much either...




So, what does that leave?


News?

None that I could find of note.


Massive indsider buying?

Nope. CEO sold a bunch of shares at about $0.75 a couple months ago.


So, how do we explain this blastoff?

I think to do so we go back to the first chart, which showed the stock in an uptrend from deep in the valley of crappolaville. That's piece number one.

Piece number 2:

Shares outstanding = 109.7 million
FLOAT = 28.5 million
Shares Short = 6.07 Million or 21.3% of Float
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rcnc.html

Share volume last two trading days > 3.5 million! (The stock has turned over more than it's entire float in the last five trading days.)


So, my WAG says this is a late-rally short-squeeze on a POS stock.

As to where it goes next? My guess is DOWN, but how far or how fast I just have no idea.


And that's the best I can do.

(:

augie