Based on what!!! A rational President!!!! I totally believe you have no grasp how dangerous he is---you still believe your dealiing with a rational man--egad! When will you capitulate, before or AFTER the attack on Iran????
I have been traveling a lot and not keeping up with current events enough but based on what I have digested my take is somewhat in line with yours and in some ways closer to Otraques.
I think what you say is true in the sense that this is what the Bushies are trying. However it is not working. Look at all the fools on Zeev's political thread. The hawks just cant conceive it even theoretically possible that America could lose. For the entire ERA of the Marshal plan thay may have been true. People have been conditioned so well they just cant think anything else. I think the current Administration suffers from the same problem only not as bad as the public.
One clear possibility in my mind is Moscow and the CHinese are upping the Ante at a time when the current admin was not counting on it. Putting the Bush admin into a situation of invade NOW during or have a LOT harder time invading later.
China and Moscow are well positioned to take advantage in several directions if we strike.
If we do strike I think it will indicate that China and Moscow are now in a strong enough position to start picking the timing of such advances in the war on terror. A big sign of weakness for the Bushies.
I do think thew Bushies definitely intend to invade Iran before they leave office OR immediately after the election. I am just not convinced they think now is the best time.