Replies to post #113440 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[orkrious]

I think the asian exuberance is due to sars seeming to be under control

[orkrious]

I think the asian exuberance is due to sars seeming to be under control

[westpacific]

Lots of talk I have seen about market not able to crash three years into a bear market.......

DATA

--From March 8, 1932 to July 8, 1932 or exactly four months, the Dow fell from 89.87 to 41.22 or 54.13%. If not a crash, a very good imitation, and after being down three years in a row.

-in the very last wave down of the Bear market of 1966 to 1974....the Dow collapsed 36%.

-from March 1974 to October 1974....went from 900 Dow all the way down to 575 Dow....in seven months

----collapses do happen more then 3 years into Bear markets!!....with the Dow now at 8852 a collapse of 36% would take us down to Dow 5665...."How about that"!!!.....kinda doubt that would be the end...

[WinLoseOrDraw]

my model says very high probability of $ndx 1170 within 7 trading days and high probability of 1130 within 9 trading days. it says nothing about how painful shorting can get between now and then, though, so i hope anybody short is not over-extended.

greed kills.

(no idea what happens after that period, either)