I participate each month with a group of about 40 economists in a forecasting poll. Here are the results of the poll with regard to questions about the federal funds rate:
What will be the FOMC's target fed funds rate following its May 10 meeting: 22.7% said 4.75% 77.3% said 5.00%
What will be the FOMC's target fed funds rate following its June 28- 29 meeting? 20.5% said 4.75% 65.9% said 5.00% 13.6% said 5.25%
What will be the FOMC's target fed funds rate following its December 12 meeting? 31.8% said below 5.00% 47.7% said at 5.00% 20.5% said above 5.00%