It's no secret, I've been sounding the bullish charge for a few weeks now, mostly based on observed trading, all technical.
Looking back at the last few weeks, the charts confirm this bullish activity. Two observations which have kept things in doubt have been low volume days and tight range of trading. It's been a slow, uneven grind upwards, with sticky and rising support.
When I am correct about a significant move, I am often a bit early to the party, because I am on the lookout for early, subtle signals-usually from unusual trade and MM activity.
Most significant moves tend to be fast and furious. Often, what precedes the moves are slow and subtle. Smart money, market participants do not want to give up what they know to technicians. But, sometimes they drop clues. Just before the herd gets wind; then, they will drop pretenses.
It appears to me, CTIX is at a critical technical point, and should be tested at current levels. The testing has actually been underway for days, how much more remains and the outcome are uncertainties. On the bullish side are: 1) Moves higher have been on the greater volume, 2) Support has been sticky and rising. Even when the BID drops, often times the ASK stays solid. Support and resistance have been literally inching up, a penny at a time. and 3) Volume is rising (last few weeks). On the bearish side: 1) Price has been pushing the upper Bollinger band (daily), piercing it Friday. The upper Bollinger band is a natural point of resistance. 2) Stochastics are reaching overbought levels, another natural point for growing resistance, and 3) At each new higher level, there will be new sellers which adds supply. Some sellers are holdouts from prior failed rallies, and some are profit taking from the recent run. There will always be a natural amount of selling.
I think the wild card being played currently is Smart Money. What will they be doing? How will they be playing things? Well, I think they have displayed their desire to accumulate. Bullish. I think they are positioning and not desperate. Careful about reading into every little market move. The trick for Smart Money will be to accumulate without moving the price too far too quickly. So, I anticipate some uneven trading still to come. When the dam breaks, it will be obvious to all, and a bit late for many. This all takes into account, my many assumptions are in play.
I would not fault technicians for taking profit at this level. It is a natural point. I will be sitting on my profits; because, I sense the current run has not ended. I have seen no evidence for this. As is the norm with CTIX, mostly boring, but can go from the freezer to the broiler quickly.
From a fundamental view, things just get better and better. I understand why some will not sell.
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