Replies to post #180700 on Biotech Values

[jq1234]

>> They estimated that 70% of Sovaldi sales were for Olysio/Sovaldi combinations.

Before you answer those questions, how accurate are those estimates? It doesn't seem these estimates match with Olysio revenue reported by JNJ unless JNJ has been discounting Olysio heavily like 50%. Is there any evidence JNJ has been doing that? For 1Q, Olysio revenue was consistent with reported percentage of Sovaldi/Olysio usage off label. For 2Q, those revenue numbers are way off.

[justrpaul]

Rocky,

I think the time frame that doctors and patients have in mind is the norm they've dealt with for so long - 48 weeks. Compared to that, 4, 8, 12, so what. Especially when the side effects are so minimal. The concern is the cure and if 12 weeks gives some benefit over 8 and there are no side effects, why would you shorten the treatment? Doctors are conditioned to tell their patients to take all of your medicine, even if you're feeling better.

I think the concern of the Gilead competitors is differentiation and marketing. The concern for patients and physicians should be cure. Stock analysts who have no medical skin in the game seem to be enamored with shorter timeframes, as if they are handicapping a horse race, rather than a clinical problem.

By the way, my 15 week HCV qualtiative test shows "not detected". That's after 12 weeks of Olysio/Sovalsi and with - because my docs love me and really wanted to be sure of a cure - the last 5 weeks with ribavirin added.

[zipjet]

GILD

My friend, a top liver MD, says that the gold standard is Sovaldi and Olysio - and that if he needed to be treated for HCV that is what he would want.

He also says that unlike earlier treatments his patients are not complaining of SE's but rather are saying they feel much better than before the treatment.

He also thinks treating MD's will shift to the all oral from GILD with new patients when available.

He thinks it will be difficult to get MD's to use other drugs and penetration will be low.

He is also joining the GILD speakers panel.