Replies to post #180635 on Biotech Values

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Advair U.S. sales tumbled 19 percent.

A big investor concern is its reliance on the inhaled lung drug Advair, which makes up nearly a fifth of sales. It already faces competition from copycat versions in Europe, with generics in the United States perhaps a couple of years away.

In addition, AstraZeneca's (AZN.L) rival product Symbicort is winning business in the United States and further eroding its leading market position.

GSK hopes two new inhaled respiratory drugs - Breo and Anoro - will fill the gap, but their uptake so far has been slow.

It's going to take time.

Witty declined to predict when GSK's growth would improve, but he argued that the respiratory business was going through an important period of change that would ultimately bear fruit.

"Now is the moment to start thinking about what this group looks like post-Advair," he said. "We expect the transition of this portfolio to continue over the next 2-3 years and remain confident that GSK will maintain its leadership position in respiratory well into the next decade."

Ketan Patel, senior investment analyst at Ecclesiastical Investment Management, which holds GSK shares, said he believed GSK would overcome its challenges in the long term - and in the meantime the stock was offering an attractive 6 percent yield.

But many analysts remain skeptical. "We continue to look for credible evidence that GSK's conviction in the growth potential of its respiratory franchise is warranted given its importance to the company's long-term pharma strategy," said Leerink analyst Seamus Fernandez, who rates GSK shares market perform.

[genisi]

GSK—mepolizumab should be a bright spot but will take few more years...