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basserdan

05/28/03 12:02 AM

#111706 RE: Sherlock356 #111700

They Want! the dollar lower....its forcing Europe's hand. And now with the Euro overvalued, and Euro institutes Way underinvested in US assets....what happens when they are forced to start cutting rates overseas (soon imo)...and the dollar begins to rebound...and European $$ flows to our markets...Cha Ching!!
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Sherlock...

If I may, I have a couple of questions...

Who is the "they" in "they want! the dollar lower?

Can the Euro "overvaluation" do another 15%

What is going to be the catalyst that causes the dollar to rebound?

What is your best guesstimate of how far and from what level the dollar will rebound?

Regards,
Dan
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CoalTrain

05/29/03 10:57 AM

#112391 RE: Sherlock356 #111700


They Want! the dollar lower....its forcing Europe's hand. And now with the Euro overvalued, and Euro institutes Way underinvested in US assets....what happens when they are forced to start cutting rates overseas (soon imo)...and the dollar begins to rebound...and European $$ flows to our markets...Cha Ching!!


I believe the Chinese currency is pegged to the dollar so as American goods get cheap in Euros so do Chinese goods. In the vitamin manufacturing industry and sections of the pharmaceutical industry the Chinese have been beating us bloody in terms of taking over market share overthe last decade. Chinese Nutricuetical and many pharmaceuticals are very cheap in terms of dollars. Cheaper still now in Euros. If SLovakian radio is to be believed Brussels is now telling some of the newly entered EU countries they no longer have the right to trade with the Americas if Brussels says they cannot. Funny, they did not talk about this before the vote. The case discussed was Latin America. Brussles may cause a lot of trade realignment. I have always thought the EU was a joke but I think the war in Iraq has given Europe a lot more incentive for EU. Still I cannot see how they are going to make it work without political union. Maybe political union will happen as the wars grind on, but without it I think EU is doomed long term. Short to medium term I do not think things are so clear on EU or how trade realignment may go.

CT