Replies to post #111648 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[Zeev Hed]

Actually, DCF could lead you to believe this market has much more to go. Since interest rates have been declared by the feds as still "reducible" the choices left for an investor between money markets that have principal safety but diminishing returns, bonds of all colors with variable safety and relatively meager returns (and possible capital losses if rates turn) and stocks paying dividends (and for that, increasing in time dividends) as well as PE in the range of around 16 to 20, DCF calculations with even modest assumptions on earnings growth of solid companies would indicate equities (well, some equities) are "the only game" in town, that is, until the market starts to see another recession and decreased earnings on the horizons... That is after all what the "fed model" of fair equities valuations is all about...

Zeev

[basserdan]

Market watcher,

You are probably right. Today was ridiculous. My problem is that, as an MBA, I was taught to think rationally about things like net present value, discounted cash flows, expected values, etc.

In that case, I think the key to continued solvency is the ability to 'dumb' down to levels that might allow one a mindset of going with the flow. These guys ain't foolin' around and, basis today's closing values, their forays into the futures markets (presuming they exist) have now, in all probability, resulted in some substantial windfall profits to add to the Fed's kitty.

Can anyone deny that Sir Alan's performance of the classic "my way or the highway" scenario has been played to virtuoso type perfection?

I'd be better off in this market if I were an illiterate half-moron with his TV stuck on CNBC.

Maybe not! Money isn't everything. <gg>

Good luck,
Dan