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Zeev Hed

05/27/03 5:05 PM

#111626 RE: Ace Hanlon #111606

Such a move will not terminate in a sudden drop, typically a retest and another attempt higher with deteriorating internals is often the case. Right now, volume is expanding, new highs are expanding new lows are contracting and the equity P/C ratio while quite low, not yet extremely so. Yes, VXN made a new low, but it and VIX need to turn before you can become negative. But yes, it is not an area to go gang ho long, I wait till I get retrenchments and in many cases simply take profits when offered, of course, that can cause my cash position to explode (as it did today...), but hopefully, individual stocks (like BSTE and COCO) will provide rational reentries. AGM is also approaching ever so slowly the sub $22 area where it becomes interesting for a doubling up.

Zeev
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Emptyhead

05/27/03 9:32 PM

#111671 RE: Ace Hanlon #111606

George

I fear the Fed is doing all they can to muster the investing troops. Many see this as advantageous and as long as the"many" are making profits whose to complain,right? Mmmmm,but what the FED is gambling here is that their fiscal stimulus will work and create that robust economy which we once had. All the catylsts are in place with a sentiment in the White House:"not on my watch,not this time." I think we will get a late June top and start a slow downward move into the Fall which may set the market up for a nice election run come early winter and run trough 2004(assuming the economy is on a solid footing).
The gamble here is all or none with this administration.