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China Securities News Roundup 2014-07-14 08:53:51 0 [Abstract] mini electric car next year, rapid volume this year is expected to reach 30,000 scale, next year is expected to impact even break 100,000 mark. Vehicle maximum benefit, maximum flexibility lithium power batteries are currently the most scarce industrial chain links.
Tesla leading industry trends accelerate and continue to overweight the domestic policy context, the long-term trend of electric vehicles is irreversible. Mini electric cars currently in line with the interests of all parties, production and sales data in the first half has proved the leading position in the market. We are optimistic about next year's mini electric cars in volume this year is expected to reach 30,000 scale, next year is expected to impact even break 100,000 mark. Vehicle maximum benefit, maximum flexibility lithium power batteries are currently the most scarce industrial chain links.
Compliance with vast market conditions
Due to the special nature of the environment in China, China's new energy automotive industry has the particularity of its development. Industrial foundation is still weak, which determines the short term is difficult to achieve technological breakthroughs; subsidies continue to overweight, which there is room for profit. Mini electric car is born in this context.
At this stage, mini electric car in the interests of all parties to achieve a win-win situation. For consumers, cost-effective, attractive; For businesses, the profit model is good, high rate of return; For local governments, the successful completion of targets, the promotion of local GDP, for the country, the activation industries, preliminary technical reserves.
Mini electric car is a means to achieve the "80-80" standard (maximum speed of 80km / h, the minimum mileage 80km), using the lithium battery, and may enter the country by way of loan qualification catalog, get new energy electric car subsidies car. This differs from the use of lead-acid batteries, less than 80 kilometers mileage, low-speed electric vehicles can not get subsidized common sense. Mini electric car production qualification threshold is to get the car into the new energy vehicles subsidy directory, industry chain integration, business model molding. The first two main qualification is certified on both the main barriers to enterprise operational. Currently the main mini electric car companies, including Condi car industry (in cooperation with Geely), temporal (affiliated Zotye), the new ocean (affiliated Zotye), Chery.
Mini electric car owners hit the market is price-sensitive crowd. Compared to conventional cars, traditional electric cars, mini electric car because of cost-effective, practical and convenient, got consumers. Mini electric car replacement market is vast, especially in the second and third tier cities and towns.
From the production and sales in the first half of this year, mini electric car has been in a leading position, Condi top, Zotye is also at the forefront. And because micro-electric vehicles are extremely sensitive to the policy of subsidies, in the second half as the floor around the subsidy policy, mini electric car sales are expected to accelerate. This year is expected to impact 30,000 mark, accounted for 40% of the country's new energy vehicle sales.
Behind the price is that these mini electric car full advantage of the subsidies. According to August 2013 introduction of the subsidy policy, enter the directory subsidies for new energy vehicles is based on mileage to subsidies; accordance with the policy early in 2014, the next year, subsidies were reduced by 5% in 2013 on the basis of 10%; while Lithium-cost decline curve significantly faster rate of decline in subsidies, if the amount of future production, the cost of the car will also have a bare drop larger, which means that 2015 is a miniature electric car best year earnings .
Benefit from the policy driven large surface
Development trends of new energy vehicles is excellent, long-term trends in China and the country's strategic position, forming a "divine logic" investment in new energy vehicles - "lower than expected sales, the policy side will be overweight; sales in line with or above expectations, the fundamentals are strong." In the background of the policy continue to overweight, mini electric car is expected to achieve volume targets around the promotion of new energy vehicles. Purchase tax relief, the national unified directory, mini electric car license release will bring major positive electric cars.
Investment strategy, first of all, the vehicle is the most direct beneficiaries. Listed companies, in addition to stocks of Condi car industry, the current A-share has no direct subject of BYD potential entrants. Second, lithium is the most flexible link. As the proportion of lithium in the vehicle in about 40%, is the highest proportion of parts, and electric car itself reaches about 15% in the proportion of lithium demand, and therefore, lithium is the most flexible link.
Third, the power batteries in short supply. Mini electric car in the process of rapid volume, power and core industry chain is the most scarce areas, from research to understand our situation, orders full power batteries, is currently in extremely short supply situation. Mini electric car next year assuming demand reached 100,000, according to 30,000 yuan / vehicle demand estimates, the demand for power battery pull of 30 billion yuan. As China's power battery is still in the early stages of growth, the current low base, who already have the production technology and production capacity of enterprises have a significant direct positive.
Fourth, material supply and wait for reversal. The current price of various lithium battery materials are in the process of volume, the price decline is due to the expansion of production capacity still exceeds demand growth. If the mini-electric cars to heavy volume, supply and demand will likely achieve reversal.
In addition, motor, electric control, spare parts and charging pile, since the micro-electric vehicles generally use a fixed customer base socket parking can be a portable charging, and charging station for charging pile needs are not urgent, so the charge pulling the little pile.
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