Replies to post #109924 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[Jerry Olson]

agree here Zeev...equity only pc very high...

still need 925 spx tho...

[hightecheast]

Zeev, I think Dow Jones violated your copyright. ... <g>

May 20, 2003 6:47 p.m. EDT

Sentiment of Insiders "Heads For the Hills," Analysts Agree

By TONY COOKE - DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

WASHINGTON -- No matter how the data are sliced, analysts of insider transactions agree: Insider sentiment has taken a sharp turn for the worse in recent weeks.

"I'm more bearish than at any time since the spring of last year," said Michael Painchaud of research firm Market Profile Theorems.

Mr. Painchaud measures insider sentiment using a proprietary ratio that tracks the number of buy and sell decisions of insiders at 800 companies. Lon Gerber, director of research for Thomson Financial, gauges the dollar value of overall market transactions, and he reaches roughly the same conclusion as Mr. Painchaud.

Insiders have sold more than $1.7 billion of their companies' stock so far in May, Mr. Gerber said, making this month -- with a little more than half the data counted -- already the biggest one for insider sales since last November. "It's the highest it's been in six months, and we're just passing the halfway point of the month," said Mr. Gerber. "It's a huge jump."

Mr. Gerber said that part of the rise in insider selling is probably the result of seasonality that is built into the statistics. Because companies often restrict insider transactions during April, when earnings reports frequently are released, some transactions are put off until May.

The past two years, he said, have been characterized by similar increases in insider transactions during May. This year, he said, that trend may have been exacerbated by the fact that the market has been rising while insiders have been restricted from selling shares. "As the market was rallying this year, there may have been some pent-up demand to sell," he said.

What's noteworthy, Mr. Gerber said, is that after months of relatively light activity on the part of buyers and sellers, pent-up demand from buyers has been absent. "The buys here have been very anemic," he said. "That hasn't changed at this point."

So far in May, about $63 million worth of shares has been purchased by insiders -- an amount roughly in line with purchases in recent months.

Other observers of insider data are reporting similar trends using their own measures.

Jonathan Moreland, research director for the weekly newsletter InsiderInsights, reported in the publication that his rolling four-week market gauge is at "the most bearish level since we started gathering these stats in the mid-1990s."

Likewise, David Coleman, editor of Vickers Weekly Insider Report, is telling his subscribers that the eight-week sell-buy ratio is at 2.37 -- up from a mid-March low of 1.61. Mr. Coleman, like Mr. Gerber, said that such sales are to be expected when the market is recovering.

Mr. Painchaud recommends that investors take a break from the market altogether -- or that they steer their money toward companies that carry smaller risk.

"Tighten down the risk characteristics of your portfolio," he said. Investors who use dollar-cost averaging could skip purchases now, he said, and buyers should pick stocks with lower risk profiles. Mr. Painchaud said that in this environment, he favors the stocks of aerospace, defense, soft-drink and railroad companies.

Mr. Painchaud has another idea for investors looking to make a purchase. "It's a good time for investors and portfolio managers to buy a fishing boat and bait, and go out to the nearest lake," he said.

http://online.wsj.com/article_print/0,,SB105346150763591200,00.html

[Paul A]

hey- I love that bold faced 'Zeev' : )


Sorta adds a touch of authority or importance to your words.

[TREND1]

Zeev
You wrote
I just don't think this bear rally has expired yet

Comment:
Maybe you better look at weekly Up Trends?

see #msg-1029590

[ajtj99]

As for the upside off the drop possibly being over, I was referring to the 1505 COMP and NDX 1124 highs yesterday.