Replies to post #93 on ViroPharma Incorporated (VPHM)

[stevecapitolhill]

Uncertainty does not/will not enhance p/s

As many have said, and many more have observed and realized with substantial monetary loss, uncertainty is not rewarded with an increased p/s and is NOT to VPHM's advantage IMHO. While the discussion may have just begun, the recovery will probably languish within a narrow range or at least well below previous levels until there is some resolution of the issue of accelerated approval of a generic or other positive news is announced, and even that will be mitigated by the lingering doubt. I hate to be pessimistic and, in fact, have bought more at these low levels, but be realistic. This company has a specter hovering above it that has to be dispelled absolutely before any near-term recovery is to be realized. Furthermore, we won't know about progress toward a generic because the developer is probably not going to divulge that soon. It is, in fact, sheer speculation, albeit probably true, that Akorn is targeting vancocin. But absent that disclaimer, there is going to be a drag on VPHM that will hold it back until there is public resolution of the generics approval process issue. VPHM may advance marginally on the basis of other pipeline news, e.g., Maribavir, but the market has spoken, and it doesn't like the PROSPECT of an early generic and is not going to discriminate between a 2008 or an early 2009 one without other significant revenue enhancements, such as a price increase, alternate driver purchase, and (not and/or) positive clinical pipeline results. I feel this will be the mindset for some months because the alternate revenue sources will take time to become productive and bashers will constantly deride the probability of success or some other aspect of other drivers, but it is just my humble opinion. I don't like the distance of the horizon to success, but I think it is foreseeable barring failure on regulatory, clinical, or managerial efforts. Since that path is going to take some twists and turns, be realistic and be patient and be prepared to wait this out. Long term is the key, not quick fix.