There are only a few guys that religiously follow seasonal cycles, you got to guess that one, i'm not giving it up -g-
He has both seasonal cycles and an independent market timing portfolio, based mostly on macd and rsi timing.
he's not always right, he has no more edge than you or me.
it's just another interesting, maybe distracting fact here.
there is no doubt that the market is ripe for a correction, if you put an elliot count on the $vix, you have 3 drives to a top from the july lows, the bears have been really killed over the last 9 months, lucretious has been advocating calls, that poor bugger could never muster enuf hooyas to go long during the greatest bull market in history.
it's quite possible we have seen the completion of a consolidation off the july lows and now a new impulse segment to new lows, the pattern off the july lows was an inverted H&S pattern, sometimes in bear markets these things make a minor breakout and reverse quickly and go to new lows, sometimes they just go to the breakout point and fail, and disapoint all the hopeful players, which are now 55% bullish on II>