From citi may 16
Gilead Sciences Inc (GILD)
Alert: Sovaldi’s U.S Sales Tracking $3.1B in Twenty Two Weeks of Launch, On track to Post >$10B in 2014
GILD's Sovaldi Tracking Ahead of Other Launches Already — Sovaldi is tracking at $3.1B for the first twenty two weeks of launch and could post $9.9B in U.S sales for 2014, if Sovaldi scrips continue at same level as the recent week without any growth. Sovaldi Q2:14 U.S sales are tracking at $2.7B vs. Citi $2.3B vs. consensus $2.1B, if Sovaldi scrips continue at same level as the recent week without any growth. We anticipate that Sovaldi will materially exceed our and consensus ests and believe that posting >$10B in global sales in FY14 is possible. In the twenty-second week of launch, Sovaldi’s weekly TRx were 9,054. While this is only the twenty-second week, it is still much ahead of protease inhibitor Incivek’ launch which had 2,228 TRx in the twenty-second week of launch (please open note to see fig 1 comparing Incivek, Victrelis, Olysio and Sovaldi launches).
Sovaldi Sales Tracking Above Consensus in 2014 — Sovaldi weekly TRx and NRx increased 5.4% and 5.5% resp., TRx scrips are 9,054 up from 8,588 last week and NRx scrips are 3,891 up from 3,689 last week. Olysio weekly TRx increased 3.1% and NRx decreased 3.9% resp., TRx scrips are 2,608 up from 2,529 last week and NRx scrips are 1,218 down from 1,267 last week. If Sovaldi scrips continue at same level as the recent week without any growth, U.S sales for 2014 would be $9.9B. This should lead to much higher sales Sovaldi sales worldwide compared to Citi $9.4B and consensus $10B. We believe that the Sovaldi’s launch will do well and will beat consensus estimates. We anticipate that Sovaldi will materially exceed our and consensus ests and believe that posting >$9B in sales in FY14 is achievable.
Sovaldi Launch Trend — Sovaldi has already posted 111,181 TRx since launch. Clearly, there is solid demand already driven by the previous patient warehousing ahead of Sovaldi’s launch. Sales in the latest week were ~ $215M per our calculation, which would mean a yearly run rate of $11.2B.
IMS Adjustments — Starting data week ending 2/14/14 and moving forward, due to invalid information used in the creation of the projection factor for Sovaldi, an adjustment in the projected prescription and unit volume will be made in weekly scrip mail channel. Effective with the data week ending 3/21/14, an adjustment will be made to adjust these estimates moving forward. Historical data from data week ending 2/14/14 through 3/14/14 and the February 2014 data month is targeted to be adjusted effective with the March 2014 data month and data week ending 4/4/14. The adjustment to TRx varies week to week from +0.7% to -4.2% and adjustment to NRx varies week to week from +0.8% to -4.8%.
Market Data 
Markets 
AI
