I have a friend who was a RIO on a tomcat (VF 84 I think it was) and said he just loved that plane. They all moved to the new F-18fs now and he told me even as cool as they are, most ex-F-14 pilots are still attached to them.
Anyway, you are absolutely correct about the inability to bring the market down. And that's why I have posted countless times about how the fundamentals trump all and the fundamentals this time don't jive with the bear case. But I do agree with the idea that you do have to have a washout before you can move higher because no amount of fundamentals is going to move the market higher if everyone's already in it. You need a strong move down to both scare the weak hands into selling and then you need to sucker in short sellers. That's where true rallies start.
I thought that our 40 week cycle low should have done that in Feb. It seemed so perfect. But the bulls just believed too hard and never allowed for the market to work itself out. So, as with most things in the market, it just got dragged out longer than both sides predicted and it appears we are going to get a final selloff here. How far? I'm standing by my trading range in the Nasdaq which per my previous posted chart had a low in the mid to low 2200's. That results in the Q's around $40ish and the NDX around the low 1600's. Probably around the Feb lows around 1630ish. That should do it.
Now Nasdaq does not have a head and shoulders. The NDX does have a potential one that with this last rally kinda messes it up a little. The volume doesn't work for that pattern either. That's why I don't put too much into it because it really is the Nasdaq that leads, not the NDX. The NDX is like the DOW of the entire NYSE. It's not really that technically sound or important. You have to watch the Nasdaq itself. Although the NDX will usually lead in percentage terms in both directions on any strong move, it's the Nasdaq that actually moves it. Remember that most Russell 2000 small caps are made up mostly of Nasdaq stocks. People forget that. That's why the Nasdaq is so important to any overall market move. If it's failing like it did today, and the rest of the market is rising, you better start selling your positions, or even shorting the rising index. You just watch what happens to the DOW next week. Even tomorrow is going to be interesting because of Quadruple witching. Tomorrow could be a major downer.
We'll see.
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