Replies to post #177509 on Biotech Values

[Rocky3]

My answer (or guess) is about long term prescription use - all those who have been identified, but are not in treatment.

The number of people that will have treated with Sovaldi before approval of the all-oral will be 20-25% of all those "under-care" in the US. So if there is any hope for a long-term market, GILD needs to focus on those who are not under-care or have not been diagnosed. I could imagine that those people will be treated with the 8 week treatment. Will they be 90% of all getting the drug? Not in the short term, but does the pricing get made on short term or long term issues? And how long will it take to go through those warehoused patients? GILD has made pretty clear that "most" of the patients would receive the 8 week treatment. For a long time, I assumed that the all-oral would be priced at $84,000 for the 8 week treatment ($1,500/pill). I still think that it will be under that due to the political drama, but I may be underestimating GILD's price toughness (and ABBV's).

Will be interesting.