Replies to post #52 on Nuclear Planet

[SeriousMoney]

In Iran, a split developing over country's hard-line nuclear stance
By Michael Slackman The New York Times
WEDNESDAY, MARCH 15, 2006

TEHRAN Just weeks ago, the Iranian government's combative approach toward building a nuclear program produced rare public displays of unity here. But while the top leaders remain resolute in their course, cracks are opening both inside and outside the circles of power over the issue.

Some people in powerful positions have begun to insist that the confrontational tactics of the Iranian president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, are backfiring, making it harder for Iran to develop a nuclear program.

This week, the UN Security Council is taking up Iran's nuclear program. That referral, and, perhaps more important, Iran's inability so far to win Russia's unequivocal support for its plans, have empowered critics of Ahmadinejad, according to political analysts with close ties to the government.

One senior Iranian official, who asked to remain anonymous because of the sensitive nature of the issue, said: "I tell you, if what they were doing was working, we would say, 'Good.'" But, he added, "For 27 years after the revolution, America wanted to get Iran to the Security Council and America failed. In less than six months, Ahmadinejad did that."

One month ago, this same official said that those who thought the hard-line approach was a bad choice were staying silent because it appeared to be succeeding.

As usual in Iran, there are mixed signals, and the government does not always speak with the same voice. On Tuesday, both Ahmadinejad and the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, insisted in public speeches that their country would never back down. At the same time, Iranian negotiators arrived in Moscow to resume talks - at Iran's request - just days after Iran had rejected a Russian proposal to resolve the standoff.

Average Iranians seem less uniformly confident at the prospect of being hit with UN sanctions. Some people have begun to joke about the catchphrase of the government - flippantly saying, "nuclear energy is our irrefutable right."

Reformers have also begun to speak out. And people with close ties to the government said high-ranking clerics have begun to give critical assessments of Iran's position to Khamenei, which the political elite sees as a seismic jolt.

"There has been no sign that they will back down," said Ahmad Zeidabady, a political analyst and journalist. "At least, Mr. Khamenei has said nothing that we can interpret" as signaling "change in the policies." But, he said, "There is more criticism as it is becoming more clear that this policy is not working, especially by those who were in the previous negotiating team."

There are also signs that negotiators are starting to back away, however slightly, from a bare-knuckle strategy and that those who had initially opposed the president's style are beginning to feel vindicated and are starting to speak up.

Former President Muhammad Khatami recently publicly criticized the aggressive approach and called for a return to his government's strategy of confidence building with the West.

"The previous team now feels they were vindicated," said Nasser Hadian, a political science professor at Tehran University who is close to many members of the government. "The new team feels they have to justify their actions."

Khamenei, who has the final say, on Tuesday issued a strong defense of Iran's position.

"The Islamic Republic of Iran considers retreat over the nuclear issue, which is the demand of the Iranian people, as breaking the country's independence that will impose huge costs on the Iranian nation," he said. "Peaceful use of nuclear technology is a must and is necessary for scientific growth in all fields. Any kind of retreat will bring a series of pressures and retreats. So, this is an irreversible path and our foreign diplomacy should defend this right courageously."

In a speech in the city of Goran, Ahmadinejad called on the people to "be angry" at the pressure being put on Iran.

"Listen well," the president said to a crowd chanting "die" as they punched the air with their fists. "A nuclear program is our irrefutable right."

When Ahmadinejad took office, he embraced a decision already made by the top leadership to move toward confrontation with the West about the nuclear program. From the sidelines, Ahmadinejad's opponents remained largely silent as his political capital grew. Iran's ability to begin uranium enrichment in and to remove the seals at a nuclear facility without any immediate consequences was initially seen as a validation of the get-tough approach.

But one political scientist who speaks regularly with members of the Foreign Ministry said that Iran had hinged much of its strategy on winning Russia's support.

The political scientist, who asked not to be identified so as not to compromise his relationship with people in the government, said that some negotiators believed that by being hostile to the West, they would be able to entice Moscow into making Tehran its stronghold in the Middle East. "They thought the turn east was the way forward," the person said. "That was a belief and a vision."

The person added: "They thought, 99 percent, Russia would seize the opportunity and back the Iranian leaders."

The route forward remains unclear as Iran tries to regain a sense of momentum.

There is a consensus here that Iran has many cards to play - from its influence with the Shiites in Iraq to its closer ties to Hezbollah in Lebanon, to the prospect of using oil as a weapon.

Hadian said he believed that for Iran to fundamentally change course, its situation will first have to grow a lot worse.

"There are concerns to keep the situation calm," Zeidabady said.

"We have received orders not even to have headlines saying the case has been sent to the Security Council."

Nazila Fathi contributed reporting for this article.

http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/03/15/news/iran.php

[SeriousMoney]

North Korea: Ready For Pre-emptive Strike
March 21, 2006 21 09 GMT
Stratfor.com

North Korea is ready to launch a pre-emptive military strike and will continue to resist U.S. pressure to scrap its nuclear weapons, state media reported March 21. North Korea sees upcoming joint U.S-South Korean military drills as preparation for a U.S.-led invasion, and has said that if necessary, the Korean People's Army has the right to launch a pre-emptive strike.

http://www.stratfor.com/products/premium/read_article.php?id=263742

[SeriousMoney]

North Korea Touts First-Strike Capability
Associated Press, By JAE-SOON CHANG, 03.21.2006, 02:42 PM

North Korea suggested Tuesday it had the ability to launch a pre-emptive attack on the United States, according to the North's official news agency. A Foreign Ministry spokesman said the North had built atomic weapons to counter the U.S. nuclear threat.

"As we declared, our strong revolutionary might put in place all measures to counter possible U.S. pre-emptive strike," the spokesman said, according to the Korean Central News Agency. "Pre-emptive strike is not the monopoly of the United States."

The United States urged North Korea to return to international nuclear negotiations instead of making inflammatory statements. State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said the United States has no plans to invade or attack North Korea.

Last week, the communist country warned that it had the right to launch a pre-emptive strike, saying it would strengthen its war footing before joint South Korea-U.S. military exercises scheduled for this weekend.

The North's spokesman said it would be a "wise" step for the United States to cooperate on nuclear issues with North Korea in the same way it does with India.

Earlier this month, President Bush signed an accord in India that would open some of its atomic reactors to international inspections in exchange for U.S. nuclear know-how and atomic fuel.

The accord was reached even though New Delhi has not signed the international Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. North Korea has withdrawn from the treaty and condemned the United States for giving India "preferential" treatment.

"If the U.S. is truly interested in finding a realistic way of resolving the Korean Peninsula nuclear issue, it would be wise for it to come out on the path of nuclear cooperation with us," the North Korean spokesman said.

The North's announcement that it has a nuclear arsenal risked escalating tensions in the prolonged standoff over its program and threatened the prospect of resuming six-nation talks on the dispute.

"We have built nuclear weapons for no other purpose than to counter U.S. nuclear threats," the Foreign Ministry spokesman said.

It is rare for North Korea to mention its nuclear capabilities in such an explicit manner. The communist state usually refers to its "nuclear deterrent force."

North Korea first declared last year that it has nuclear weapons, although the claim could not be confirmed independently. Experts believe the North has extracted enough plutonium from its main nuclear reactor for at least a half-dozen weapons.

Six-nation talks have been stalled since November over a dispute surrounding financial restrictions the United States imposed on North Korea for its alleged currency counterfeiting and money laundering. Those talks involve the two Koreas, the United States, China, Japan and Russia.

Pyongyang says it will not return to the negotiating table unless the restrictions are lifted. But Washington demands that the North come to the talks without preconditions, saying the two issues are separate.

The North's spokesman said his country had shown "maximum flexibility" in trying to resolve the financial dispute, proposing possible solutions during a meeting in New York earlier this month. The meeting produced no breakthrough.

"The Bush administration talks about six-party talks, but it actually is paying no attention to the talks," the spokesman said, according to KCNA.

McCormack said South Korea's new nuclear envoy, Chun Young-woo, will meet later this week with top State Department officials. No date has been set for a resumption of the nuclear talks, McCormack said.

The North Korean spokesman also disputed last week's U.S. national security report that, among other things, said North Korea posed a serious nuclear proliferation challenge.

"In a word, it is a robbery-like declaration of war," the spokesman said. "Through this document, the Bush administration declared to the world that it is a group of war fanatics."

http://www.forbes.com/work/feeds/ap/2006/03/21/ap2611114.html