Hi Steve, I'm not sure about the TRAN leads INDU on a daily basis. I use it as an intraday tool. However, according to DOW Theory, TRAN has to confirm with INDU... so I guess it's just like the relationship between NDX and SOX.
Now that INDU rallies without TRAN, so this rally could be bullish. Right when I'm write this, INDU is coming off...