Replies to post #177330 on Biotech Values

[justrpaul]

-some 15% of the people infected are cleared by their own immune system.

But to clarify, those that clear the virus on their own or that clear it though treatment are not counted in the chronic HCV population. They are counted as carriers of the antibody. Most estimates of the HCV population are given for the chronic set, but it pays to check. The NHANES survey that excludes institutionalized, immigrants, military, homeless, etc. gives three million for the chronic set. A later survey mentioned in post 176083 corrected for the errors in the NHANES survey and estimated a total HCV population of 5 to 7 million, which would translate to about 4 to 6 million chronic cases.

Two quick comments about the HCV chronic population by payer. One, the Medicare proportion is growing rapidly, and unless the estimate takes that into account, it is likely to be in error. (Virtually all looks at HCV demographics, agree that 75% of the population was born between 1945 and 1964, with the rest before or after.)

Two, those who did not have insurance a few years ago, should have a far easier time getting it now - those excluded by pre-existing condition; those who could not afford the individual rate they were offerred, but can afford a group rate negotiated though the state exchanges; the working poor who previously did not qualify for the very tight requirements of Medicaid, but with expanded eligibility through Obamacare can.