Replies to post #177273 on Biotech Values

[Rocky3]

- Gild share prices have already incorporated future HCV sale and earnings

I sure hope not. Of course, no one really knows what those sale and earnings will be. We may think so, but we don't. Right now the market is saying that sales will disappear or at best be flat for a few years.

- Wells, Goldman, and Credit Swisse project/speculate that Gild HCV sale will be somewhat flat (I will not argue about this)

Actually, they project very different scenerios. Goldman has them flat, Wells have them growing, and CS has them growing then flat.

- Assuming that ABBV/Enta HCV combo will be approved by this year end, this sale will come out from the projected potential Gild sale. Therefore, Wells, Goldman, and Credit Swisse somehow ignore an effect of ABBV/Enta HCV sale on Gild HCV franchise. In other word, Wells, Goldman, and Credit Swisse are assuming that ABBV/Enta HCV sale will be a failure. (Here comes my disagreement.)

I don't think that the brokers are ignoring ABBV (or MRK, etc.) in the future at all. I think that they think the overall HCV market will grow in the future years with the other companies taking market share. Goldman is pretty explicit that the others will have a decent part of the overall market.