Very thoughtful and thought provoking analysis.
A home run for XXII would be a government, any government, that as a first step mandated reducing nicotine levels in all cigarettes, gradually, over a multiyear timeframe. Thus less addictive and easier to quit but at risk to smuggled products. Or alternatively or in concert,
higher taxes to be levied the higher the nicotine content.
China has the authoritarian clout to get the ball rolling.