Replies to post #177015 on Biotech Values

[guerlain]

TRx were 10,945 for Olysio for 1Q14. TRx were 61,383 for Sovaldi for 1Q14. (from IMS monthly numbers)

Using Olysio sales as proxy, Sovaldi Q1 sales would be ~$2B.
But Key caveats for that is 20% of Olysio sales were inventory stocking. So it's really a guessing game since no way to accurately model inventory stocking for Sovaldi.

[jq1234]

My guess one possible reason we got different numbers is IMS had been adjusting weekly numbers as I can't add weekly number to match monthly number. Monthly number Guerlain provided might be more accurate. Let's use his monthly number for this exercise.

Let's take $63m international revenue out of Olysio, US revenue became $291m, plug these new numbers into same formula, Sovaldi US revenue should be about $2.077B. It's tough to say what international revenue will be. Most likely US number can't be off too far, otherwise it will be a big surprise!

[Rocky3]

re $JNJ $MVIRB $GILD - still pretty amazed by script numbers for Olysio, especially since used mostly/exclusively with Sov (ex-Japan). Can understand cost concerns if 1/3 of usage of Sov at $150,000 level.

Looks like Oly sales will be at ~$1.2B+ level for Q2 (second best ever?). Expect sales to hold up for Q3 (mostly on back of OUS sales) and then almost disappear by 2Q15 (except for Japan). Still almost $3B for '14. Don't think anyone expected that.