Replies to post #176618 on Biotech Values

[justrpaul]

There is no census of HCV cases, they are all estimates and so, I’ve been asking for the specific number that Goldman uses for the total US HCV population to see if it made a common mistake. The most commonly cited number used for total US HCV chronic cases is 3 million, which is based on the HANES survey, which found 250 HCV cases – I’m rounding – out of a highly structured sample of 10,000 domiciled Americans. The survey excluded - prisoners, hospitalized, nursing home residents, homeless, military, and immigrants. Later work –

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/enhanced/doi/10.1111/j.1478-3231.2011.02494.x/

- corrected for these and other biases, and came up with a much larger estimate, of 5 to 7 million with HCV RNA, which translates roughly to 4 to 6 million chronic cases.

The Milliman report for Janssen that someone posted earlier also used the 3 million figure, so it is not an uncommon mistake. So I wonder, what number is Goldman using? Are they also undercounting?