Replies to post #176613 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

Re: MRK’s phase-2 results in treatment-naïve GT1

As noted in #msg-100393061, the headline number for the phase-2 data MRK released today in treatment-naïve non-cirrhotic GT1 should be 95% (not 98%).

Are MRK’s phase-2 data sufficiently game-changing to alter the estimates in my sum-of-parts ENTA valuation in #msg-94993406? I don’t think so because the assumptions in the model vis-à-vis ABBV/ENTA’s 3-DAA regimen have been quite conservative.

The most direct impact of MRK’s phase-2 data on the valuation components in my model is on the $50M I ascribed to ABBV/ENTA’s next-generation 2-DAA regimen of ABT-493 + ABT-530, which might have to be downgraded slightly; however, this is tantamount to round-off error in the overall scheme of things.

p.s. Tomorrow, MRK presents phase-2 results from arms of the C_WORTHY study for treatment-experienced and cirrhotic patients.