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Rocky3

04/10/14 10:15 AM

#176606 RE: biomaven0 #176603

The GS report focuses purely on HCV patients "under care" which they put (based on GILD's own figures) at 385k in the US and 272k in the EU5.



While that is true, they surely discuss the total market. They list everyone by genotype and possible revenue. They give an "under-care" gross revenue estimate of $65B worldwide, and the "diagnosed" number is $239B worldwide (really US, EU, and Japan).

If someone can teach me how to take a picture of a chart in a pdf (Exhibit 1 on page 3 of the report - actually there were three separate reports), I will try to post it. The chart tries to establish the addressable market by genotype and location and then turn that info into revenue estimates. I can't respond to private messages here but I can on SI.
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justrpaul

04/10/14 10:15 AM

#176607 RE: biomaven0 #176603

Thanks biomaven and somewhat OT response –

On vacation in an earthquake-prone third world country, I came across a construction site for a four story building, probably a hotel. The forms were up for the columns, the rebar was in, and they were in the process of putting concrete in the form. Now, you should have a consistent mix of concrete, and pour it continuously down the form, so it dries uniformly and gains strength and appropriate flexibility for carrying various live loads, resisting earthquakes, wind etc. But, they were mixing the concrete with shovels on flattened cardboard boxes. They’d mix a batch there in the street and fill it in gallon or two gallon buckets, send the buckets up by rope, and dump them down the top of the form. Inconsistently mixed concrete batches were simply plopped, bucket by bucket in the form. Perhaps, you can imagine how a column constructed this way would perform in an earthquake.

At any rate, so many of these HCV surveys – the CTAF/ICER, GS, etc. – remind me of standing there, looking at that construction process.